What You Should Know About Projected Childhood Obesity Rates by 2050

By 2035, childhood obesity is expected to impact 254 million children aged 5 to 19 globally—a staggering rise from 159 million in 2020. Low- and middle-income countries will shoulder the majority of this burden, driven by rapid urbanization, poor diet quality, and limited access to physical activity and nutritious food.

Key Takeaways

• Childhood obesity is projected to increase by over 90 million cases between 2020 and 2035, with girls seeing a 125% rise and boys a 100% rise in clinical obesity rates.
• More than 75% of children with obesity will live in low- and middle-income countries by 2035, with Africa and Asia experiencing the sharpest increases.
• The rise is linked to an “obesogenic environment” shaped by ultra-processed food marketing, sedentary lifestyles, and limited access to healthy alternatives.
• Long-term health impacts include a higher risk of chronic conditions like type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers, often beginning early in life.
• The global economic burden of obesity could reach $4.32 trillion annually by 2035, placing pressure on both health systems and economic productivity.

254 Million Kids with Obesity by 2035: The Alarming Trajectory

The latest data delivers a startling reality. According to the World Obesity Atlas 2023, the number of children and teens aged 5 to 19 living with obesity is expected to reach about 254 million by 2035. That’s a steep increase from 159 million in 2020 and points to a growing global concern about childhood obesity.

Projections suggest a near doubling of obesity rates in boys—rising to 126 million—and a 125% increase in girls, totaling close to 128 million by 2035. These numbers reflect rates of clinical obesity as defined by BMI-for-age standards from the World Health Organization.

While statistics this high can feel overwhelming, there’s hope. Small, steady changes at home can go a long way in helping build healthy habits in children that last a lifetime.

Lower-middle-income countries are seeing the sharpest rise, with childhood obesity increasing by about 4.1% each year. Even in high-income countries, where the annual growth rate is closer to 1.3%, the trend remains worrying. If no meaningful changes are made, these patterns suggest that childhood obesity will continue to rise for decades to come.

In this blog:

• Why Low- and Middle-Income Countries Are Hit the Hardest
• The "Double Burden" of Malnutrition
• What’s Really Fueling the Rise
• Permanent Health Impacts and Costs
• 10 Proven Strategies for Change

Why Low- and Middle-Income Countries Are Hit the Hardest

Looking ahead, more than three out of four children with obesity will live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) by 2035. The most dramatic increases are expected to occur in Africa and Asia. In Africa alone, childhood obesity could triple—from 6 million in 2020 to 19 million in 2035.

Alarmingly, nine out of the ten countries predicted to see the highest relative increases in childhood obesity are LMICs. This shows how childhood obesity is a global issue, not just one for wealthy countries.

The "Double Burden" of Malnutrition

Many of these countries grapple with the “double burden of malnutrition”. This means both undernutrition—where children don't get enough calories—and obesity—where kids consume too many empty calories—coexist in the same communities. Families in these areas often have limited access to nutrient-rich foods. As a result, children rely on cheaper, highly processed meals that lack vitamins and minerals.

💡 Quick Tip: Look for low-cost whole foods like beans, eggs, and seasonal vegetables to replace sugary snacks and sodas.

Urbanization's Impact on Diets and Activity

Urbanization is pushing many families into cities where traditional meals get replaced by ultra-processed foods. This shift, known as the “nutrition transition”, means kids are eating more:

• High-sugar items
• Saturated fats
• Low-nutrient snack foods

This change in eating habits is closely tied to rising rates of childhood obesity and shows why avoiding junk food matters. Urban environments also make it harder for kids to stay active due to:

• Lack of safe parks or playgrounds
• Poor walkability and bike paths
• High food costs limiting healthy choices

👶 Parent Tip: Even short walks and indoor movement games at home can help children stay active in busy, urban settings.

What’s Really Fueling the Rise: The Obesogenic Environment

It’s easy to think childhood obesity is only about willpower—but our kids are growing up in a complex "obesogenic environment". From food marketing to community design, many outside forces shape what families eat and how active their children can be. To better understand these influences, explore this in-depth breakdown of obesity causes.

The Drivers Behind the Trend

Here are some leading contributors to child obesity in today's world:

• Widespread marketing of ultra-processed, high-calorie snacks
• Advertising aimed at children with playful mascots and jingles
• Reduced physical activity in school settings
• Increased screen time leading to sedentary behavior
• Unsafe neighborhoods without areas for play
• High cost of healthy food options in many areas
• Food insecurity that limits healthy grocery choices
• Minimal labeling standards on packaged food
• Fast-paced schedules leading to more takeout or frozen meals
• Genetic and biological factors that interact with environment

💡 Quick Tip: Build a "go-to list" of fast, nourishing meal ideas to make healthy eating feel less overwhelming on busy days.

Permanent Health Impacts and a $4.32 Trillion Price Tag

The Lifelong Health Consequences

Childhood obesity can lead to severe long-term health effects like type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and some forms of cancer. Many of the risks continue into adulthood. The World Health Organization notes that most obese children become obese adults, often with earlier and more severe chronic conditions.

👶 Parent Tip: You don’t need to overhaul your child’s diet—just start with small wins like reducing added sugar.

The Staggering Economic Burden

Beyond health, there's also an enormous cost. The World Obesity Federation reports that by 2035, obesity will cost the global economy $4.32 trillion annually—that’s 2.9% of the world’s GDP.

Direct and Indirect Costs

Let’s look at where the money goes:

• Direct costs: hospital visits, medical care, obesity-related treatments
• Indirect costs: lost productivity, early mortality, disability care, and public health services

Encouraging healthy lifestyles early on can significantly bring down both personal and societal medical expenses.

How We Can Change This Future: 10 Proven Strategies

Reversing the trend of childhood obesity requires both family-level change and big-picture solutions. It’s not just up to parents—schools, governments, health systems, and communities all play a role.

WHO's Population-Based Strategies for a Healthier Future

Here are 10 science-backed strategies from the World Health Organization that can make a difference:

• Tax sugar-sweetened drinks to lower consumption and support health programs. Families can help by reducing sugary drinks at home.
• Use clear nutrition labeling to make healthy choices easier at grocery stores.
• Restrict food ads aimed at kids, especially those for high-fat, high-sugar snacks. Read more on how this shapes motivation.
• Establish school nutrition standards to ensure daily access to healthy meals.
• Expand access to health programs that offer guidance and tools for better habits.
• Support breastfeeding, which is linked to lower obesity risks in children.
• Provide regular pediatric checkups that monitor weight and offer early intervention.
• Create active neighborhoods with safe spaces for biking, walking, and outdoor play.
• Serve nutritious food in public spaces like schools and hospitals.
• Protect recess and physical activity time at school so kids meet movement goals. Learn how physical activity supports health.

💡 Quick Tip: When you can, prep meals over the weekend or batch-cook healthy items to save time during the week.

Written by: Vivian Castillo, MS, RD, CNSC – Registered Dietitian and clinical nutrition expert in pediatric care.

Sources:
World Obesity Federation - World Obesity Atlas 2023
World Health Organization - Obesity and Overweight (fact sheet)
The Lancet - Article: "The Global Epidemiology of Obesity"

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